Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

MJ Henry, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

England: average of 8.1, 8.0 below their average of 16.1 on all balls faced (-50%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 244 balls faced.
Sample: 244 balls · medium confidence
Old ball (21-80): average of 11.6, 4.5 below their average of 16.1 on all balls faced (-28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 386 balls faced.
Sample: 386 balls · medium confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 17, 4 below their balls per dismissal of 21 on all balls faced (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 30% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 481 balls faced.
Sample: 481 balls · high confidence
Spin: average of 13.8, 2.3 below their average of 16.1 on all balls faced (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 329 balls faced.
Sample: 329 balls · medium confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 68.9, 6.6 below their strike rate of 75.5 on all balls faced (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 386 balls faced.
Sample: 386 balls · medium confidence
Away from home: average of 12.7, 3.4 below their average of 16.1 on all balls faced (-21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 366 balls faced.
Sample: 366 balls · medium confidence
England: average of 10.6, 5.5 below their average of 16.1 on all balls faced (-34%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 27% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 160 balls faced.
Sample: 160 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Pace: average of 17.6, 1.5 above their average of 16.1 on all balls faced (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 565 balls faced.
Sample: 565 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): average of 21.6, 5.5 above their average of 16.1 on all balls faced (+34%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 509 balls faced.
Sample: 509 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 20.8, 4.7 above their average of 16.1 on all balls faced (+29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 376 balls faced.
Sample: 376 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 83.0, 7.4 above their strike rate of 75.5 on all balls faced (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 19% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 376 balls faced.
Sample: 376 balls · medium confidence
Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 42, 20 above their balls per dismissal of 21 on all balls faced (+96%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 167 balls faced.
Sample: 167 balls · low confidence
Australia: average of 24.6, 8.5 above their average of 16.1 on all balls faced (+53%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 220 balls faced.
Sample: 220 balls · low confidence
Off break: strike rate of 93.8, 18.3 above their strike rate of 75.5 on all balls faced (+24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 19% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 162 balls faced.
Sample: 162 balls · low confidence
Off break: average of 25.3, 9.2 above their average of 16.1 on all balls faced (+57%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 162 balls faced.
Sample: 162 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Left-handed batters: average of 35.3, 9.3 above their average of 26.0 on all balls bowled (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 2705 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,705 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 72.0, 46.0 above their average of 26.0 on all balls bowled (+176%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 714 balls bowled.
Sample: 714 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 76.5, 50.5 above their average of 26.0 on all balls bowled (+194%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: +14%) — 516 balls bowled.
Sample: 516 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 3.29, 0.18 above their economy of 3.11 on all balls bowled (+6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 29% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 2705 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,705 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 63.5, 37.5 above their average of 26.0 on all balls bowled (+144%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: +9%) — 294 balls bowled.
Sample: 294 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

South Africa: average of 18.5, 7.6 below their average of 26.0 on all balls bowled (-29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1038 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,038 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 22.7, 3.4 below their average of 26.0 on all balls bowled (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 4919 balls bowled.
Sample: 4,919 balls · high confidence
Zimbabwe: average of 9.1, 16.9 below their average of 26.0 on all balls bowled (-65%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 351 balls bowled.
Sample: 351 balls · low confidence
Zimbabwe: average of 9.1, 16.9 below their average of 26.0 on all balls bowled (-65%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: -14%) — 351 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	376	312	15	20.80	82.98	70.7%	14.9%
Off break	162	152	6	25.33	93.83	64.2%	14.8%
Slow left-arm orthodox	128	76	11	6.91	59.38	79.7%	10.2%
Right-arm fast	100	70	6	11.67	70.00	67.0%	11.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	509	410	19	21.58	80.55	68.8%	13.8%
Old ball (21-80)	386	266	23	11.57	68.91	73.1%	10.9%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	4,919	2,472	109	22.68	3.02	45.1	75.1%	6.4%
Left-handed batters	2,705	1,483	42	35.31	3.29	64.4	73.0%	6.9%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	3,658	1,974	73	27.04	3.24	50.1	72.8%	6.9%
New ball (1-20)	2,592	1,286	52	24.73	2.98	49.8	76.6%	6.4%
Second new ball (81+)	1,392	699	27	25.89	3.01	51.6	74.4%	6.0%