Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

MJ Hoggard, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Old ball (21-80): average of 5.1, 2.0 below their average of 7.1 on all balls faced (-28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 453 balls faced.
Sample: 453 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 20.3, 3.0 below their strike rate of 23.3 on all balls faced (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 453 balls faced.
Sample: 453 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 5.1, 2.1 below their average of 7.1 on all balls faced (-29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 488 balls faced.
Sample: 488 balls · high confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 24, 7 below their balls per dismissal of 31 on all balls faced (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 470 balls faced.
Sample: 470 balls · high confidence
Spin: average of 5.3, 1.8 below their average of 7.1 on all balls faced (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 351 balls faced.
Sample: 351 balls · medium confidence
Leg break: average of 5.2, 1.9 below their average of 7.1 on all balls faced (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 233 balls faced.
Sample: 233 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 5.1, 2.0 below their average of 7.1 on all balls faced (-29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 370 balls faced.
Sample: 370 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 21.0, 2.2 below their strike rate of 23.3 on all balls faced (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 404 balls faced.
Sample: 404 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast: strike rate of 17.8, 5.4 below their strike rate of 23.3 on all balls faced (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 213 balls faced.
Sample: 213 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 46, 15 above their balls per dismissal of 31 on all balls faced (+50%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 597 balls faced.
Sample: 597 balls · high confidence
Pace: average of 8.2, 1.1 above their average of 7.1 on all balls faced (+16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 779 balls faced.
Sample: 779 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 9.8, 2.7 above their average of 7.1 on all balls faced (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 609 balls faced.
Sample: 609 balls · high confidence
England: average of 9.8, 2.7 above their average of 7.1 on all balls faced (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 609 balls faced.
Sample: 609 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): average of 9.4, 2.3 above their average of 7.1 on all balls faced (+33%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 650 balls faced.
Sample: 650 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 26.2, 2.9 above their strike rate of 23.3 on all balls faced (+12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 27% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 650 balls faced.
Sample: 650 balls · high confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Left-handed batters: economy of 3.63, 0.36 above their economy of 3.26 on all balls bowled (+11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 2395 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,395 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 40.7, 10.8 above their average of 30.0 on all balls bowled (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1350 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,350 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 33.2, 3.2 above their average of 30.0 on all balls bowled (+11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 29% of comparable players (their median change: -8%) — 721 balls bowled.
Sample: 721 balls · high confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Right-handed batters: economy of 3.06, 0.20 below their economy of 3.26 on all balls bowled (-6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 4270 balls bowled.
Sample: 4,270 balls · high confidence
India: average of 17.5, 12.5 below their average of 30.0 on all balls bowled (-42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 584 balls bowled.
Sample: 584 balls · medium confidence
India: average of 17.5, 12.5 below their average of 30.0 on all balls bowled (-42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 584 balls bowled.
Sample: 584 balls · medium confidence
Bangladesh: average of 17.7, 12.2 below their average of 30.0 on all balls bowled (-41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 659 balls bowled.
Sample: 659 balls · medium confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	404	85	14	6.07	21.04	84.2%	2.0%
Leg break	233	57	11	5.18	24.46	85.8%	2.6%
Right-arm fast	213	38	5	7.60	17.84	84.0%	1.4%
Left-arm fast-medium	100	29	4	7.25	29.00	82.0%	2.0%
Off break	65	12	3	4.00	18.46	83.1%	1.5%
Right-arm medium	62	37	0	–	59.68	74.2%	12.9%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	650	170	18	9.44	26.15

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	4,270	2,177	71	30.66	3.06	60.1	76.0%	6.3%
Left-handed batters	2,395	1,447	50	28.94	3.63	47.9	74.2%	8.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	2,687	1,448	46	31.48	3.23	58.4	74.5%	6.9%
New ball (1-20)	2,370	1,295	38	34.08	3.28	62.4	77.6%	7.5%
Second new ball (81+)	1,608	881	37	23.81	3.29	43.5	73.6%	6.7%