Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

Mohammad Rafique, Men's Test

Pace: average of 10.7, 4.0 below their average of 14.7 on all balls faced (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 370 balls faced.
Sample: 370 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 41.8, 19.9 below their strike rate of 61.8 on all balls faced (-32%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 208 balls faced.
Sample: 208 balls · low confidence
Away from home: average of 6.2, 8.4 below their average of 14.7 on all balls faced (-57%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 155 balls faced.
Sample: 155 balls · low confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 9.7, 5.0 below their average of 14.7 on all balls faced (-34%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 208 balls faced.
Sample: 208 balls · low confidence

At home: average of 19.8, 5.1 above their average of 14.7 on all balls faced (+34%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 606 balls faced.
Sample: 606 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): average of 18.0, 3.4 above their average of 14.7 on all balls faced (+23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 663 balls faced.
Sample: 663 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 65.3, 3.5 above their strike rate of 61.8 on all balls faced (+6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 663 balls faced.
Sample: 663 balls · high confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 25, 2 above their balls per dismissal of 24 on all balls faced (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 407 balls faced.
Sample: 407 balls · medium confidence

Sri Lanka: average of 85.6, 42.2 above their average of 43.3 on all balls bowled (+97%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 1294 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,294 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 91.7, 48.3 above their average of 43.3 on all balls bowled (+111%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 826 balls bowled.
Sample: 826 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 105.5, 20.6 above their strike rate of 84.9 on all balls bowled (+24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 2848 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,848 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 59.5, 16.1 above their average of 43.3 on all balls bowled (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 1220 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,220 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 3.40, 0.34 above their economy of 3.06 on all balls bowled (+11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1412 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,412 balls · high confidence

Second new ball (81+): economy of 2.82, 0.25 below their economy of 3.06 on all balls bowled (-8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 1104 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,104 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: economy of 2.91, 0.16 below their economy of 3.06 on all balls bowled (-5%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 3002 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,002 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 17.8, 25.6 below their average of 43.3 on all balls bowled (-59%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 422 balls bowled.
Sample: 422 balls · medium confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 57.8, 27.1 below their strike rate of 84.9 on all balls bowled (-32%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 462 balls bowled.

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Off break	224	177	9	19.67	79.02	67.4%	12.1%
Right-arm fast-medium	208	87	9	9.67	41.83	77.4%	5.3%
Right-arm fast	87	43	5	8.60	49.43	70.1%	4.6%
Leg break	84	71	4	17.75	84.52	61.9%	13.1%
Slow left-arm orthodox	83	61	4	15.25	73.49	68.7%	10.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	663	433	24	18.04	65.31	70.7%	9.7%
Second new ball (81+)	82	31	6	5.17

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	3,002	1,454	34	42.76	2.91	88.3	73.4%	5.3%
Left-handed batters	1,412	800	18	44.44	3.40	78.4	67.6%	6.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	2,848	1,495	27	55.37	3.15	105.5	71.0%	6.0%
Second new ball (81+)	1,104	518	17	30.47	2.82	64.9	72.2%	4.2%
New ball (1-20)	462	241	8	30.13	3.13	57.8	72.9%	5.8%