Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

Mohammad Sami, Men's Test

Right-arm fast-medium: average of 6.6, 5.7 below their average of 12.4 on all balls faced (-46%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 254 balls faced.
Sample: 254 balls · medium confidence
Leg break: strike rate of 23.3, 11.1 below their strike rate of 34.4 on all balls faced (-32%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 189 balls faced.
Sample: 189 balls · low confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 22, 14 below their balls per dismissal of 36 on all balls faced (-40%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 216 balls faced.
Sample: 216 balls · low confidence
At home: average of 10.9, 1.5 below their average of 12.4 on all balls faced (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 197 balls faced.
Sample: 197 balls · low confidence

Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 74, 39 above their balls per dismissal of 36 on all balls faced (+107%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 298 balls faced.
Sample: 298 balls · medium confidence
India: average of 25.3, 13.0 above their average of 12.4 on all balls faced (+105%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 264 balls faced.
Sample: 264 balls · medium confidence
India: average of 25.0, 12.6 above their average of 12.4 on all balls faced (+102%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 387 balls faced.
Sample: 387 balls · medium confidence
South Africa: average of 16.8, 4.4 above their average of 12.4 on all balls faced (+35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 158 balls faced.
Sample: 158 balls · low confidence
Leg break: average of 22.0, 9.6 above their average of 12.4 on all balls faced (+78%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 189 balls faced.
Sample: 189 balls · low confidence

India: average of 118.2, 51.6 above their average of 66.6 on all balls bowled (+78%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 972 balls bowled.
Sample: 972 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 76.8, 10.2 above their average of 66.6 on all balls bowled (+15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 2178 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,178 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 125.2, 22.2 above their strike rate of 103.0 on all balls bowled (+22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1503 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,503 balls · high confidence
India: average of 118.8, 52.2 above their average of 66.6 on all balls bowled (+78%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 732 balls bowled.
Sample: 732 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 72.5, 5.9 above their average of 66.6 on all balls bowled (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 735 balls bowled.
Sample: 735 balls · high confidence

England: average of 53.5, 13.1 below their average of 66.6 on all balls bowled (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 957 balls bowled.
Sample: 957 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 89.0, 14.0 below their strike rate of 103.0 on all balls bowled (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1068 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,068 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 55.1, 11.5 below their average of 66.6 on all balls bowled (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 1324 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,324 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 37.1, 29.4 below their average of 66.6 on all balls bowled (-44%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 430 balls bowled.

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	254	93	14	6.64	36.61	81.1%	4.7%
Leg break	189	44	2	22.00	23.28	87.8%	3.2%
Left-arm fast-medium	125	26	0	–	20.80	87.2%	2.4%
Slow left-arm orthodox	103	42	2	21.00	40.78	79.6%	5.8%
Right-arm fast	84	42	1	42.00	50.00	72.6%	4.8%
Off break	70	22	2	11.00	31.43	78.6%	1.4%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	502	173	14	12.36

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	2,178	1,383	18	76.83	3.81	121.0	70.0%	8.5%
Left-handed batters	1,324	881	16	55.06	3.99	82.8	70.1%	9.1%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	1,503	967	12	80.58	3.86	125.3	68.7%	8.6%
New ball (1-20)	1,068	696	12	58.00	3.91	89.0	73.6%	9.2%
Second new ball (81+)	931	601	10	60.10	3.87	93.1	68.1%	8.4%