Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

Mohammed Shami, Men's Test

Old ball (21-80): average of 10.7, 1.4 below their average of 12.1 on all balls faced (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 387 balls faced.
Sample: 387 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast: strike rate of 44.3, 30.3 below their strike rate of 74.6 on all balls faced (-41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 212 balls faced.
Sample: 212 balls · low confidence
Right-arm fast: average of 7.8, 4.3 below their average of 12.1 on all balls faced (-35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 212 balls faced.
Sample: 212 balls · low confidence
South Africa: average of 7.4, 4.7 below their average of 12.1 on all balls faced (-39%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 29% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 178 balls faced.
Sample: 178 balls · low confidence

At home: average of 20.0, 7.9 above their average of 12.1 on all balls faced (+65%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 254 balls faced.
Sample: 254 balls · medium confidence
India: average of 20.0, 7.9 above their average of 12.1 on all balls faced (+65%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 254 balls faced.
Sample: 254 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 14.9, 2.9 above their average of 12.1 on all balls faced (+24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 348 balls faced.
Sample: 348 balls · medium confidence

Second new ball (81+): economy of 4.08, 0.78 above their economy of 3.31 on all balls bowled (+23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 2063 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,063 balls · high confidence
England: average of 40.5, 12.8 above their average of 27.7 on all balls bowled (+46%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 2909 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,909 balls · high confidence
England: average of 38.3, 10.6 above their average of 27.7 on all balls bowled (+38%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 3033 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,033 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 67.9, 17.6 above their strike rate of 50.3 on all balls bowled (+35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 3600 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,600 balls · high confidence

India: average of 22.1, 5.6 below their average of 27.7 on all balls bowled (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 3239 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,239 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 20.9, 6.8 below their average of 27.7 on all balls bowled (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 2012 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,012 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 22.1, 5.6 below their average of 27.7 on all balls bowled (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 3239 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,239 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 45.0, 5.3 below their strike rate of 50.3 on all balls bowled (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 5852 balls bowled.
Sample: 5,852 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): economy of 3.02, 0.29 below their economy of 3.31 on all balls bowled (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 3600 balls bowled.

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	348	284	19	14.95	81.61	61.8%	11.8%
Right-arm fast	212	94	12	7.83	44.34	76.4%	6.1%
Off break	193	157	14	11.21	81.35	67.9%	11.9%
Left-arm fast-medium	100	67	7	9.57	67.00	69.0%	8.0%
Slow left-arm orthodox	77	83	4	20.75	107.79	59.7%	16.9%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	618	450	34	13.24	72.82	66.7%	10.2%
Old ball (21-80)	387	300	28

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	6,876	3,804	141	26.98	3.32	48.8	73.8%	8.1%
Left-handed batters	4,639	2,542	88	28.89	3.29	52.7	73.7%	7.7%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	5,852	3,133	130	24.10	3.21	45.0	73.9%	7.6%
New ball (1-20)	3,600	1,809	53	34.13	3.02	67.9	77.4%	7.5%
Second new ball (81+)	2,063	1,404	46	30.52	4.08	44.8	67.0%	9.7%