Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

MR Adair, Men's Test

Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 32, 18 below their balls per dismissal of 51 on all balls faced (-36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 161 balls faced.
Sample: 161 balls · low confidence
Spin: average of 30.5, 4.2 below their average of 34.7 on all balls faced (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 192 balls faced.
Sample: 192 balls · low confidence

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 74.9, 6.2 above their strike rate of 68.7 on all balls faced (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 431 balls faced.
Sample: 431 balls · medium confidence
Pace: average of 37.1, 2.4 above their average of 34.7 on all balls faced (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 364 balls faced.
Sample: 364 balls · medium confidence
Old ball (21-80): average of 40.4, 5.6 above their average of 34.7 on all balls faced (+16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 431 balls faced.
Sample: 431 balls · medium confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 108, 57 above their balls per dismissal of 51 on all balls faced (+113%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 215 balls faced.
Sample: 215 balls · low confidence
At home: average of 54.0, 19.3 above their average of 34.7 on all balls faced (+55%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 175 balls faced.
Sample: 175 balls · low confidence

Right-handed batters: economy of 3.94, 0.25 above their economy of 3.69 on all balls bowled (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 742 balls bowled.
Sample: 742 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 40.6, 6.3 above their average of 34.3 on all balls bowled (+18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 742 balls bowled.
Sample: 742 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 40.7, 6.4 above their average of 34.3 on all balls bowled (+19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 28% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 797 balls bowled.
Sample: 797 balls · high confidence

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 48.9, 6.8 below their strike rate of 55.8 on all balls bowled (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 538 balls bowled.
Sample: 538 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 3.20, 0.49 below their economy of 3.69 on all balls bowled (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 373 balls bowled.
Sample: 373 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 24.9, 9.4 below their average of 34.3 on all balls bowled (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 373 balls bowled.
Sample: 373 balls · medium confidence
At home: average of 22.4, 11.9 below their average of 34.3 on all balls bowled (-35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 318 balls bowled.
Sample: 318 balls · low confidence

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	262	169	5	33.80	64.50	66.0%	8.8%
Slow left-arm orthodox	109	53	4	13.25	48.62	77.1%	6.4%
Off break	79	67	0	–	84.81	62.0%	12.7%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	431	323	8	40.38	74.94	65.7%	11.6%
New ball (1-20)	65	41	1	41.00	63.08	69.2%	9.2%
Second new ball (81+)	60	18	2	9.00	30.00	78.3%	1.7%

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	742	487	12	40.58	3.94	61.8	72.2%	9.6%
Left-handed batters	373	199	8	24.88	3.20	46.6	72.9%	7.2%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	538	320	11	29.09	3.57	48.9	71.6%	8.2%
New ball (1-20)	460	289	8	36.13	3.77	57.5	74.6%	10.0%
Second new ball (81+)	117	77	1	77.00	3.95	117.0	68.4%	6.8%