Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

MS Panesar, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 26.9, 3.0 below their strike rate of 29.9 on all balls faced (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 461 balls faced.
Sample: 461 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): average of 4.4, 0.7 below their average of 5.2 on all balls faced (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 461 balls faced.
Sample: 461 balls · high confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 14, 4 below their balls per dismissal of 17 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 176 balls faced.
Sample: 176 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 20, 3 above their balls per dismissal of 17 on all balls faced (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 544 balls faced.
Sample: 544 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 35.2, 5.3 above their strike rate of 29.9 on all balls faced (+18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 264 balls faced.
Sample: 264 balls · medium confidence
Old ball (21-80): average of 6.6, 1.5 above their average of 5.2 on all balls faced (+29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 264 balls faced.
Sample: 264 balls · medium confidence
Off break: strike rate of 35.8, 5.8 above their strike rate of 29.9 on all balls faced (+19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 24% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 151 balls faced.
Sample: 151 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Left-handed batters: average of 58.7, 24.2 above their average of 34.5 on all balls bowled (+70%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 3165 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,165 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 3.23, 0.43 above their economy of 2.80 on all balls bowled (+15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 3165 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,165 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 53.6, 19.1 above their average of 34.5 on all balls bowled (+55%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 1173 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,173 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 50.6, 16.1 above their average of 34.5 on all balls bowled (+47%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1091 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,091 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 40.0, 5.5 above their average of 34.5 on all balls bowled (+16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 7176 balls bowled.
Sample: 7,176 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 54.0, 19.5 above their average of 34.5 on all balls bowled (+56%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: -10%) — 659 balls bowled.
Sample: 659 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 48.9, 14.4 above their average of 34.5 on all balls bowled (+42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 29% of comparable players (their median change: +14%) — 963 balls bowled.
Sample: 963 balls · high confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

United Arab Emirates: average of 21.6, 12.9 below their average of 34.5 on all balls bowled (-37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 846 balls bowled.
Sample: 846 balls · high confidence
England: average of 27.7, 6.8 below their average of 34.5 on all balls bowled (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 4909 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	197	57	11	5.18	28.93	84.3%	2.5%
Off break	151	54	9	6.00	35.76	80.8%	4.0%
Leg break	138	40	6	6.67	28.99	85.5%	3.6%
Right-arm fast	92	28	6	4.67	30.43	80.4%	3.3%
Slow left-arm orthodox	63	20	5	4.00	31.75	82.5%	4.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	461	124	28	4.43	26.90	83.7%	2.4%
Old ball (21-80)	264	93	14	6.64

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	9,130	4,026	137	29.39	2.65	66.6	77.1%	5.3%
Left-handed batters	3,165	1,703	29	58.72	3.23	109.1	70.3%	5.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	7,980	3,745	104	36.01	2.82	76.7	74.7%	5.3%
Second new ball (81+)	3,169	1,468	49	29.96	2.78	64.7	76.5%	5.8%
New ball (1-20)	1,146	516	13	39.69	2.70	88.2	76.9%	5.4%