Plans built only from the evidence.

Right-handed batters: average of 54.7, 18.0 above their average of 36.7 on all balls bowled (+49%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1465 balls bowled.

Sample: 1,465 balls · high confidence

Old ball (21-80): economy of 3.41, 0.23 above their economy of 3.19 on all balls bowled (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 918 balls bowled.

Sample: 918 balls · high confidence

South Africa: average of 80.3, 43.6 above their average of 36.7 on all balls bowled (+119%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 378 balls bowled.

Sample: 378 balls · medium confidence

Away from home: average of 44.0, 7.3 above their average of 36.7 on all balls bowled (+20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 1062 balls bowled.

Sample: 1,062 balls · high confidence

New ball (1-20): strike rate of 105.0, 35.8 above their strike rate of 69.2 on all balls bowled (+52%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 630 balls bowled.

Sample: 630 balls · medium confidence

Second new ball (81+): economy of 3.66, 0.47 above their economy of 3.19 on all balls bowled (+15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 597 balls bowled.

Sample: 597 balls · medium confidence

Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 74.6, 5.4 above their strike rate of 69.2 on all balls bowled (+8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 597 balls bowled.

Sample: 597 balls · medium confidence

West Indies: average of 56.3, 19.6 above their average of 36.7 on all balls bowled (+53%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: -8%) — 324 balls bowled.

Sample: 324 balls · low confidence

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 54.0, 15.2 below their strike rate of 69.2 on all balls bowled (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 918 balls bowled.

Sample: 918 balls · high confidence

New ball (1-20): economy of 2.41, 0.78 below their economy of 3.19 on all balls bowled (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 630 balls bowled.

Sample: 630 balls · medium confidence

Sri Lanka: average of 28.5, 8.2 below their average of 36.7 on all balls bowled (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 828 balls bowled.

Sample: 828 balls · high confidence

Left-handed batters: average of 21.9, 14.8 below their average of 36.7 on all balls bowled (-40%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 680 balls bowled.

Sample: 680 balls · medium confidence

At home: average of 31.5, 5.2 below their average of 36.7 on all balls bowled (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 29% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 1083 balls bowled.

Sample: 1,083 balls · high confidence

Sri Lanka: average of 27.5, 9.2 below their average of 36.7 on all balls bowled (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 468 balls bowled.

Sample: 468 balls · medium confidence