Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

Nauman Ali, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Old ball (21-80): average of 14.1, 1.5 below their average of 15.6 on all balls faced (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 30% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 328 balls faced.
Sample: 328 balls · medium confidence
Off break: strike rate of 27.2, 18.7 below their strike rate of 45.9 on all balls faced (-41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 213 balls faced.
Sample: 213 balls · low confidence
Off break: average of 8.3, 7.4 below their average of 15.6 on all balls faced (-47%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 213 balls faced.
Sample: 213 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 55, 21 above their balls per dismissal of 34 on all balls faced (+61%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 274 balls faced.
Sample: 274 balls · medium confidence
Away from home: average of 17.1, 1.5 above their average of 15.6 on all balls faced (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 246 balls faced.
Sample: 246 balls · medium confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: strike rate of 50.4, 4.5 above their strike rate of 45.9 on all balls faced (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 24% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 260 balls faced.
Sample: 260 balls · medium confidence
England: average of 22.6, 7.0 above their average of 15.6 on all balls faced (+45%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 209 balls faced.
Sample: 209 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

New ball (1-20): economy of 3.46, 0.36 above their economy of 3.10 on all balls bowled (+12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1026 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,026 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 3.63, 0.53 above their economy of 3.10 on all balls bowled (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1455 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,455 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 42.2, 17.1 above their average of 25.1 on all balls bowled (+68%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 727 balls bowled.
Sample: 727 balls · high confidence
Bangladesh: average of 78.8, 53.7 above their average of 25.1 on all balls bowled (+214%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 630 balls bowled.
Sample: 630 balls · medium confidence
Away from home: average of 30.8, 5.7 above their average of 25.1 on all balls bowled (+23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 1644 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,644 balls · high confidence
Bangladesh: average of 78.8, 53.7 above their average of 25.1 on all balls bowled (+214%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 630 balls bowled.
Sample: 630 balls · medium confidence
New Zealand: average of 61.7, 36.6 above their average of 25.1 on all balls bowled (+146%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 379 balls bowled.
Sample: 379 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 30.4, 5.3 above their average of 25.1 on all balls bowled (+21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 1455 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,455 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 55.1, 6.6 above their strike rate of 48.6 on all balls bowled (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 27% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 3198 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Slow left-arm orthodox	260	131	9	14.56	50.38	76.9%	6.2%
Off break	213	58	7	8.29	27.23	84.5%	2.8%
Right-arm fast-medium	106	58	2	29.00	54.72	72.6%	6.6%
Right-arm fast	96	42	4	10.50	43.75	77.1%	7.3%
Leg break	85	58	0	–	68.24	67.1%	10.6%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	517	236	14	16.86	45.65	78.3%	6.4%
Old ball (21-80)	328	155	11	14.09

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	3,452	1,653	72	22.96	2.87	47.9	74.3%	5.1%
Left-handed batters	1,455	881	29	30.38	3.63	50.2	64.3%	5.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	3,198	1,625	58	28.02	3.05	55.1	71.3%	5.2%
New ball (1-20)	1,026	591	27	21.89	3.46	38.0	70.0%	5.9%
Second new ball (81+)	683	318	16	19.88	2.79	42.7	73.8%	5.0%

Batting against them: where they are strongest

New ball (1-20): strike rate of 38.0, 10.6 below their strike rate of 48.6 on all balls bowled (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1026 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,026 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: economy of 2.87, 0.23 below their economy of 3.10 on all balls bowled (-7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 3452 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,452 balls · high confidence
England: average of 18.4, 6.7 below their average of 25.1 on all balls bowled (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 755 balls bowled.
Sample: 755 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 23.0, 2.1 below their average of 25.1 on all balls bowled (-8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: +9%) — 3263 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,263 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 23.0, 2.1 below their average of 25.1 on all balls bowled (-8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 3452 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,452 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 2.79, 0.30 below their economy of 3.10 on all balls bowled (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 683 balls bowled.
Sample: 683 balls · medium confidence
West Indies: average of 13.4, 11.7 below their average of 25.1 on all balls bowled (-47%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: -8%) — 481 balls bowled.
Sample: 481 balls · medium confidence
South Africa: average of 22.5, 2.6 below their average of 25.1 on all balls bowled (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1059 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,059 balls · high confidence