Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

NLTC Perera, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Away from home: average of 14.2, 6.1 below their average of 20.3 on all balls faced (-30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 192 balls faced.
Sample: 192 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Second new ball (81+): average of 32.8, 12.4 above their average of 20.3 on all balls faced (+61%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 167 balls faced.
Sample: 167 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Old ball (21-80): economy of 4.46, 0.36 above their economy of 4.11 on all balls bowled (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 426 balls bowled.
Sample: 426 balls · medium confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 67.3, 7.9 above their average of 59.4 on all balls bowled (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 683 balls bowled.
Sample: 683 balls · medium confidence
Away from home: average of 71.7, 12.4 above their average of 59.4 on all balls bowled (+21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 696 balls bowled.
Sample: 696 balls · medium confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 138.0, 51.3 above their strike rate of 86.7 on all balls bowled (+59%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 276 balls bowled.
Sample: 276 balls · low confidence
England: average of 91.0, 31.6 above their average of 59.4 on all balls bowled (+53%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 288 balls bowled.
Sample: 288 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

New ball (1-20): strike rate of 63.0, 23.7 below their strike rate of 86.7 on all balls bowled (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 252 balls bowled.
Sample: 252 balls · low confidence
At home: average of 37.8, 21.6 below their average of 59.4 on all balls bowled (-36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 258 balls bowled.
Sample: 258 balls · low confidence
New ball (1-20): economy of 3.48, 0.63 below their economy of 4.11 on all balls bowled (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 252 balls bowled.
Sample: 252 balls · low confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 45.5, 13.9 below their average of 59.4 on all balls bowled (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 19% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 271 balls bowled.
Sample: 271 balls · low confidence
Pakistan: average of 37.8, 21.6 below their average of 59.4 on all balls bowled (-36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 258 balls bowled.
Sample: 258 balls · low confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 37.8, 21.6 below their average of 59.4 on all balls bowled (-36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 258 balls bowled.
Sample: 258 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast	102	57	3	19.00	55.88	73.5%	5.9%
Off break	65	40	0	–	61.54	58.5%	6.2%
Right-arm fast-medium	61	66	3	22.00	108.20	54.1%	18.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	167	131	4	32.75	78.44	59.3%	9.6%
Old ball (21-80)	107	66	6	11.00	61.68	70.1%	7.5%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	683	471	7	67.29	4.14	97.6	69.4%	11.1%
Left-handed batters	271	182	4	45.50	4.03	67.8	66.8%	7.4%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	426	317	5	63.40	4.46	85.2	66.7%	12.0%
Second new ball (81+)	276	190	2	95.00	4.13	138.0	65.9%	8.7%
New ball (1-20)	252	146	4	36.50	3.48	63.0	75.0%	8.3%