Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

NM Hauritz, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Old ball (21-80): average of 15.4, 11.2 below their average of 26.6 on all balls faced (-42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 322 balls faced.
Sample: 322 balls · medium confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 33, 20 below their balls per dismissal of 53 on all balls faced (-38%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 296 balls faced.
Sample: 296 balls · medium confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 43.2, 6.7 below their strike rate of 49.9 on all balls faced (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 322 balls faced.
Sample: 322 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 18.7, 7.9 below their average of 26.6 on all balls faced (-30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 295 balls faced.
Sample: 295 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 44.4, 5.5 below their strike rate of 49.9 on all balls faced (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 295 balls faced.
Sample: 295 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Second new ball (81+): average of 39.7, 13.1 above their average of 26.6 on all balls faced (+49%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 521 balls faced.
Sample: 521 balls · high confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 67, 14 above their balls per dismissal of 53 on all balls faced (+26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 337 balls faced.
Sample: 337 balls · medium confidence
Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 110, 57 above their balls per dismissal of 53 on all balls faced (+107%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 221 balls faced.
Sample: 221 balls · low confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: average of 42.0, 15.4 above their average of 26.6 on all balls faced (+58%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 174 balls faced.
Sample: 174 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Right-handed batters: economy of 3.45, 0.30 above their economy of 3.15 on all balls bowled (+10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 2777 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,777 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 38.9, 3.9 above their average of 35.0 on all balls bowled (+11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 2777 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,777 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 43.1, 8.1 above their average of 35.0 on all balls bowled (+23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 1880 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,880 balls · high confidence
New Zealand: average of 44.8, 9.8 above their average of 35.0 on all balls bowled (+28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 28% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 798 balls bowled.
Sample: 798 balls · high confidence
New Zealand: average of 65.8, 30.8 above their average of 35.0 on all balls bowled (+88%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 558 balls bowled.
Sample: 558 balls · medium confidence
South Africa: average of 50.8, 15.8 above their average of 35.0 on all balls bowled (+45%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 22% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 607 balls bowled.
Sample: 607 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Left-handed batters: economy of 2.56, 0.59 below their economy of 3.15 on all balls bowled (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1424 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,424 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 29.7, 5.3 below their average of 35.0 on all balls bowled (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: +14%) — 2321 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,321 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 23.1, 11.9 below their average of 35.0 on all balls bowled (-34%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 736 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	295	131	7	18.71	44.41	73.6%	5.8%
Slow left-arm orthodox	174	84	2	42.00	48.28	77.0%	6.3%
Off break	128	68	2	34.00	53.13	68.0%	5.5%
Left-arm fast-medium	94	44	1	44.00	46.81	73.4%	4.3%
Right-arm fast	72	51	1	51.00	70.83	73.6%	12.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	521	278	7	39.71	53.36	72.9%	7.3%
Old ball (21-80)	322	139	9	15.44

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	2,777	1,596	41	38.93	3.45	67.7	72.7%	7.1%
Left-handed batters	1,424	608	22	27.64	2.56	64.7	78.3%	4.1%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	3,076	1,661	43	38.63	3.24	71.5	74.3%	6.4%
Second new ball (81+)	705	323	14	23.07	2.75	50.4	75.3%	4.8%
New ball (1-20)	420	220	6	36.67	3.14	70.0	75.5%	6.0%