Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

PM Siddle, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Second new ball (81+): average of 10.6, 4.1 below their average of 14.7 on all balls faced (-28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 1206 balls faced.
Sample: 1,206 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 43.1, 4.0 below their strike rate of 47.2 on all balls faced (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 1206 balls faced.
Sample: 1,206 balls · high confidence
Off break: strike rate of 42.0, 5.1 below their strike rate of 47.2 on all balls faced (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 28% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 445 balls faced.
Sample: 445 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Old ball (21-80): average of 21.7, 6.9 above their average of 14.7 on all balls faced (+47%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 1236 balls faced.
Sample: 1,236 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 50.8, 3.6 above their strike rate of 47.2 on all balls faced (+8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1236 balls faced.
Sample: 1,236 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 50.2, 3.0 above their strike rate of 47.2 on all balls faced (+6%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 24% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1010 balls faced.
Sample: 1,010 balls · high confidence
India: average of 16.6, 1.9 above their average of 14.7 on all balls faced (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 27% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 529 balls faced.
Sample: 529 balls · high confidence
Left-arm fast-medium: average of 22.0, 7.3 above their average of 14.7 on all balls faced (+49%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 152 balls faced.
Sample: 152 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

United Arab Emirates: average of 77.0, 46.3 above their average of 30.7 on all balls bowled (+151%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 882 balls bowled.
Sample: 882 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 49.8, 19.1 above their average of 30.7 on all balls bowled (+62%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1472 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,472 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 42.9, 12.2 above their average of 30.7 on all balls bowled (+40%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: -8%) — 918 balls bowled.
Sample: 918 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 91.5, 28.6 above their strike rate of 62.9 on all balls bowled (+45%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 3569 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,569 balls · high confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 36.5, 5.8 above their average of 30.7 on all balls bowled (+19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 4046 balls bowled.
Sample: 4,046 balls · high confidence
Wales: average of 57.3, 26.7 above their average of 30.7 on all balls bowled (+87%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 270 balls bowled.
Sample: 270 balls · low confidence
West Indies: average of 38.3, 7.7 above their average of 30.7 on all balls bowled (+25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: -10%) — 288 balls bowled.
Sample: 288 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Sri Lanka: average of 18.2, 12.5 below their average of 30.7 on all balls bowled (-41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 790 balls bowled.
Sample: 790 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 44.0, 18.9 below their strike rate of 62.9 on all balls bowled (-30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 3039 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	1,010	507	36	14.08	50.20	75.4%	6.0%
Off break	445	187	13	14.38	42.02	77.1%	3.8%
Right-arm fast	377	192	13	14.77	50.93	75.3%	6.1%
Slow left-arm orthodox	346	153	10	15.30	44.22	76.9%	4.9%
Left-arm fast-medium	152	66	3	22.00	43.42	77.0%	4.6%
Leg break	100	40	4	10.00	40.00	73.0%	2.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	1,236	628	29	21.66

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	9,858	4,772	166	28.75	2.90	59.4	78.2%	6.7%
Left-handed batters	4,046	2,005	55	36.45	2.97	73.6	76.1%	6.3%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	7,296	3,470	113	30.71	2.85	64.6	78.1%	6.3%
New ball (1-20)	3,569	1,760	39	45.13	2.96	91.5	77.9%	6.8%
Second new ball (81+)	3,039	1,547	69	22.42	3.05	44.0	76.2%	6.9%