Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

RAS Lakmal, Men's Test

Pace: average of 9.3, 2.2 below their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 850 balls faced.
Sample: 850 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 9.2, 2.4 below their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 1065 balls faced.
Sample: 1,065 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 8.6, 2.9 below their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 460 balls faced.
Sample: 460 balls · high confidence
England: average of 9.0, 2.5 below their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 28% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 254 balls faced.
Sample: 254 balls · medium confidence
West Indies: average of 8.0, 3.5 below their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (-31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 185 balls faced.
Sample: 185 balls · low confidence

At home: average of 16.8, 5.3 above their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (+46%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 871 balls faced.
Sample: 871 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 16.8, 5.3 above their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (+46%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 871 balls faced.
Sample: 871 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 52.6, 4.4 above their strike rate of 48.2 on all balls faced (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 460 balls faced.
Sample: 460 balls · high confidence
Spin: average of 14.9, 3.4 above their average of 11.5 on all balls faced (+29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 1086 balls faced.
Sample: 1,086 balls · high confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 26, 2 above their balls per dismissal of 24 on all balls faced (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 24% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 1181 balls faced.
Sample: 1,181 balls · high confidence

England: average of 58.9, 22.5 above their average of 36.4 on all balls bowled (+62%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 1646 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,646 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 47.5, 11.1 above their average of 36.4 on all balls bowled (+30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 3464 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,464 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 3.33, 0.33 above their economy of 3.01 on all balls bowled (+11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 3025 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,025 balls · high confidence
England: average of 50.4, 13.9 above their average of 36.4 on all balls bowled (+38%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 830 balls bowled.
Sample: 830 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 47.5, 11.1 above their average of 36.4 on all balls bowled (+30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 3464 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,464 balls · high confidence

West Indies: average of 21.7, 14.8 below their average of 36.4 on all balls bowled (-41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: -10%) — 1230 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,230 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): economy of 2.62, 0.38 below their economy of 3.01 on all balls bowled (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 4218 balls bowled.
Sample: 4,218 balls · high confidence
Zimbabwe: average of 22.1, 14.3 below their average of 36.4 on all balls bowled (-39%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 1014 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,014 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 24.5, 11.9 below their average of 36.4 on all balls bowled (-33%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -8%) — 1533 balls bowled.

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Slow left-arm orthodox	499	229	16	14.31	45.89	74.3%	5.0%
Right-arm fast-medium	460	242	28	8.64	52.61	76.5%	8.7%
Off break	406	185	13	14.23	45.57	75.4%	5.7%
Left-arm fast-medium	157	76	8	9.50	48.41	74.5%	6.4%
Leg break	148	41	3	13.67	27.70	79.7%	2.0%
Right-arm fast	143	90	9	10.00	62.94	70.6%	9.1%
Left-arm fast	69	40	4	10.00	57.97	75.4%	10.1%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	7,584	3,729	103	36.20	2.95	73.6	74.7%	5.9%
Left-handed batters	4,859	2,503	68	36.81	3.09	71.5	74.4%	6.2%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	5,200	2,709	68	39.84	3.13	76.5	73.0%	6.0%
New ball (1-20)	4,218	1,844	56	32.93	2.62	75.3	78.6%	5.5%
Second new ball (81+)	3,025	1,679	47	35.72	3.33	64.4	71.7%	6.7%

Second new ball (81+)	994	472	42	11.24	47.48	73.7%	5.8%
Old ball (21-80)	929	461	37	12.46	49.62	76.4%	7.3%