Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

RL Chase, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Right-arm fast-medium: average of 16.5, 10.4 below their average of 26.9 on all balls faced (-39%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 1882 balls faced.
Sample: 1,882 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 36.8, 10.4 below their strike rate of 47.2 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1882 balls faced.
Sample: 1,882 balls · high confidence
Pace: average of 19.4, 7.5 below their average of 26.9 on all balls faced (-28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 3438 balls faced.
Sample: 3,438 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 38.1, 9.1 below their strike rate of 47.2 on all balls faced (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 753 balls faced.
Sample: 753 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): average of 15.9, 10.9 below their average of 26.9 on all balls faced (-41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 753 balls faced.
Sample: 753 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast: strike rate of 40.7, 6.5 below their strike rate of 47.2 on all balls faced (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 712 balls faced.
Sample: 712 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 21.0, 5.8 below their average of 26.9 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 2649 balls faced.
Sample: 2,649 balls · high confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Leg break: average of 74.2, 47.3 above their average of 26.9 on all balls faced (+176%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 780 balls faced.
Sample: 780 balls · high confidence
Off break: strike rate of 58.9, 11.7 above their strike rate of 47.2 on all balls faced (+25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 873 balls faced.
Sample: 873 balls · high confidence
Spin: average of 41.7, 14.9 above their average of 26.9 on all balls faced (+55%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 2543 balls faced.
Sample: 2,543 balls · high confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: strike rate of 54.6, 7.4 above their strike rate of 47.2 on all balls faced (+16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 782 balls faced.
Sample: 782 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 34.8, 7.9 above their average of 26.9 on all balls faced (+29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 3389 balls faced.
Sample: 3,389 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 55.4, 8.2 above their strike rate of 47.2 on all balls faced (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 1181 balls faced.
Sample: 1,181 balls · high confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 112.4, 29.5 above their strike rate of 82.8 on all balls bowled (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 4945 balls bowled.
Sample: 4,945 balls · high confidence
New Zealand: average of 84.0, 35.1 above their average of 48.9 on all balls bowled (+72%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1096 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,096 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 57.3, 8.4 above their average of 48.9 on all balls bowled (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 4992 balls bowled.
Sample: 4,992 balls · high confidence
New Zealand: average of 84.0, 35.1 above their average of 48.9 on all balls bowled (+72%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 1096 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,096 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 72.6, 23.6 above their average of 48.9 on all balls bowled (+48%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1144 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,144 balls · high confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

New ball (1-20): strike rate of 48.3, 34.5 below their strike rate of 82.8 on all balls bowled (-42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 870 balls bowled.
Sample: 870 balls · high confidence
England: average of 33.8, 15.1 below their average of 48.9 on all balls bowled (-31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 1440 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,440 balls · high confidence
England: average of 36.6, 12.3 below their average of 48.9 on all balls bowled (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 1016 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,016 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 33.4, 15.5 below their average of 48.9 on all balls bowled (-32%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 805 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	1,882	693	42	16.50	36.82	79.7%	4.4%
Off break	873	514	13	39.54	58.88	64.8%	6.3%
Slow left-arm orthodox	782	427	13	32.85	54.60	67.6%	5.1%
Leg break	780	445	6	74.17	57.05	69.2%	6.4%
Right-arm fast	712	290	14	20.71	40.73	77.2%	4.2%
Left-arm fast-medium	410	197	6	32.83	48.05	77.3%	6.6%
Left-arm fast	238	102	4	25.50	42.86	77.3%	4.6%
Right-arm medium	196	76	4	19.00	38.78	80.6%	4.1%
Left-arm wrist spin	108	75	3

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	4,992	2,924	51	57.33	3.51	97.9	64.6%	5.2%
Left-handed batters	3,115	1,862	47	39.62	3.59	66.3	68.0%	6.7%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	4,945	2,865	44	65.11	3.48	112.4	66.1%	5.6%
Second new ball (81+)	2,304	1,478	36	41.06	3.85	64.0	63.7%	6.3%
New ball (1-20)	870	450	18	25.00	3.10	48.3	70.6%	5.3%

Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	4,104	1,908	61	31.28	46.49	74.3%	5.3%
Second new ball (81+)	1,181	654	27	24.22	55.38	67.9%	5.8%
New ball (1-20)	753	287	18	15.94	38.11	79.9%	4.2%