Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

S Nadeem, Men's Test

England: average of 58.2, 24.1 above their average of 34.1 on all balls bowled (+71%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 354 balls bowled.
Sample: 354 balls · low confidence

Right-handed batters: economy of 3.25, 0.33 below their economy of 3.58 on all balls bowled (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 384 balls bowled.
Sample: 384 balls · medium confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 29.7, 4.4 below their average of 34.1 on all balls bowled (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 27% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 384 balls bowled.
Sample: 384 balls · medium confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 42.3, 14.9 below their strike rate of 57.2 on all balls bowled (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 254 balls bowled.
Sample: 254 balls · low confidence

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	384	208	7	29.71	3.25	54.9	74.0%	7.6%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	254	144	6	24.00	3.40	42.3	79.1%	9.1%
Second new ball (81+)	144	98	2	49.00	4.08	72.0	59.0%	6.9%