Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

S van Zyl, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Spin: average of 22.1, 4.2 below their average of 26.3 on all balls faced (-16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 16% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 307 balls faced.
Sample: 307 balls · medium confidence
New ball (1-20): average of 16.7, 9.6 below their average of 26.3 on all balls faced (-37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 361 balls faced.
Sample: 361 balls · medium confidence
Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 43, 9 below their balls per dismissal of 52 on all balls faced (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 259 balls faced.
Sample: 259 balls · medium confidence
Away from home: average of 20.5, 5.8 below their average of 26.3 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 281 balls faced.
Sample: 281 balls · medium confidence
India: average of 11.2, 15.1 below their average of 26.3 on all balls faced (-57%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 161 balls faced.
Sample: 161 balls · low confidence
India: average of 11.2, 15.1 below their average of 26.3 on all balls faced (-57%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 161 balls faced.
Sample: 161 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Pace: average of 30.0, 3.7 above their average of 26.3 on all balls faced (+14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 471 balls faced.
Sample: 471 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 30.2, 3.9 above their average of 26.3 on all balls faced (+15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 497 balls faced.
Sample: 497 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 81.5, 55.2 above their average of 26.3 on all balls faced (+209%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 242 balls faced.
Sample: 242 balls · medium confidence
Second new ball (81+): average of 66.0, 39.7 above their average of 26.3 on all balls faced (+151%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 330 balls faced.
Sample: 330 balls · medium confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 77, 25 above their balls per dismissal of 52 on all balls faced (+48%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 231 balls faced.
Sample: 231 balls · medium confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 60.0, 9.2 above their strike rate of 50.8 on all balls faced (+18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 21% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 330 balls faced.
Sample: 330 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 150.0, 82.8 above their strike rate of 67.2 on all balls bowled (+123%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 300 balls bowled.
Sample: 300 balls · low confidence
At home: average of 28.8, 4.1 above their average of 24.7 on all balls bowled (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 289 balls bowled.
Sample: 289 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Old ball (21-80): economy of 1.62, 0.58 below their economy of 2.20 on all balls bowled (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 300 balls bowled.
Sample: 300 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	253	125	5	25.00	49.41	77.5%	7.5%
Slow left-arm orthodox	154	77	0	–	50.00	69.5%	6.5%
Off break	121	58	7	8.29	47.93	74.4%	6.6%
Left-arm fast-medium	112	59	2	29.50	52.68	72.3%	8.0%
Right-arm fast	92	41	0	–	44.57	76.1%	7.6%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
New ball (1-20)	361	167	10	16.70	46.26	78.1%	7.5%
Second new ball (81+)	330	198	3	66.00

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	260	90	4	22.50	2.08	65.0	78.5%	3.8%
Left-handed batters	143	58	2	29.00	2.43	71.5	77.6%	5.6%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	300	81	2	40.50	1.62	150.0	81.3%	2.3%