Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

Saeed Ajmal, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Spin: average of 5.7, 5.9 below their average of 11.6 on all balls faced (-51%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 373 balls faced.
Sample: 373 balls · medium confidence
Old ball (21-80): average of 8.4, 3.1 below their average of 11.6 on all balls faced (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 315 balls faced.
Sample: 315 balls · medium confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 37.5, 4.2 below their strike rate of 41.7 on all balls faced (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 315 balls faced.
Sample: 315 balls · medium confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 9.2, 2.3 below their average of 11.6 on all balls faced (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 309 balls faced.
Sample: 309 balls · medium confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: average of 4.4, 7.2 below their average of 11.6 on all balls faced (-62%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 177 balls faced.
Sample: 177 balls · low confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: strike rate of 24.9, 16.8 below their strike rate of 41.7 on all balls faced (-40%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 177 balls faced.
Sample: 177 balls · low confidence
Off break: average of 7.9, 3.7 below their average of 11.6 on all balls faced (-32%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 17% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 150 balls faced.
Sample: 150 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Right-arm fast-medium: average of 25.9, 14.3 above their average of 11.6 on all balls faced (+124%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 488 balls faced.
Sample: 488 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 53.1, 11.4 above their strike rate of 41.7 on all balls faced (+27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 488 balls faced.
Sample: 488 balls · high confidence
Pace: average of 17.8, 6.2 above their average of 11.6 on all balls faced (+54%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 709 balls faced.
Sample: 709 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 13.6, 2.0 above their average of 11.6 on all balls faced (+18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 172 balls faced.
Sample: 172 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Australia: average of 111.5, 83.4 above their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (+297%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 415 balls bowled.
Sample: 415 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 111.5, 83.4 above their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (+297%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +14%) — 415 balls bowled.
Sample: 415 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: average of 34.4, 6.3 above their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (+22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 4182 balls bowled.
Sample: 4,182 balls · high confidence
New Zealand: average of 58.5, 30.4 above their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (+108%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 329 balls bowled.
Sample: 329 balls · low confidence
New Zealand: average of 58.5, 30.4 above their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (+108%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 329 balls bowled.
Sample: 329 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

England: average of 19.6, 8.5 below their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (-30%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 1633 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,633 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 25.4, 2.7 below their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 7410 balls bowled.
Sample: 7,410 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 14.5, 13.6 below their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (-49%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -8%) — 700 balls bowled.
Sample: 700 balls · medium confidence
West Indies: average of 14.5, 13.6 below their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (-49%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: -10%) — 700 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	488	259	10	25.90	53.07	70.1%	6.4%
Slow left-arm orthodox	177	44	10	4.40	24.86	81.4%	1.7%
Off break	150	63	8	7.88	42.00	74.7%	3.3%
Left-arm fast-medium	86	31	3	10.33	36.05	75.6%	2.3%
Right-arm fast	85	45	4	11.25	52.94	75.3%	8.2%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	732	317	24	13.21	43.31	73.5%	4.2%
Old ball (21-80)	315	118	14	8.43

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	7,410	3,179	125	25.43	2.57	59.3	74.9%	4.4%
Left-handed batters	4,182	1,824	53	34.42	2.62	78.9	73.7%	4.3%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	7,659	3,227	108	29.88	2.53	70.9	75.2%	4.3%
Second new ball (81+)	2,675	1,235	51	24.22	2.77	52.5	72.4%	4.8%
New ball (1-20)	1,258	541	19	28.47	2.58	66.2	74.6%	3.7%