Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

SCJ Broad, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Slow left-arm orthodox: strike rate of 41.5, 23.8 below their strike rate of 65.3 on all balls faced (-36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 667 balls faced.
Sample: 667 balls · high confidence
Off break: strike rate of 52.5, 12.8 below their strike rate of 65.3 on all balls faced (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1194 balls faced.
Sample: 1,194 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 13.4, 4.9 below their average of 18.2 on all balls faced (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 1895 balls faced.
Sample: 1,895 balls · high confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: average of 14.6, 3.6 below their average of 18.2 on all balls faced (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 667 balls faced.
Sample: 667 balls · high confidence
Spin: average of 16.9, 1.3 below their average of 18.2 on all balls faced (-7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 23% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 2089 balls faced.
Sample: 2,089 balls · high confidence
New Zealand: average of 10.6, 7.6 below their average of 18.2 on all balls faced (-42%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 384 balls faced.
Sample: 384 balls · medium confidence
New Zealand: average of 15.0, 3.3 below their average of 18.2 on all balls faced (-18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 852 balls faced.
Sample: 852 balls · high confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 79.0, 13.6 above their strike rate of 65.3 on all balls faced (+21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1687 balls faced.
Sample: 1,687 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast: strike rate of 78.1, 12.8 above their strike rate of 65.3 on all balls faced (+20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 798 balls faced.
Sample: 798 balls · high confidence
Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 35, 7 above their balls per dismissal of 28 on all balls faced (+27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1131 balls faced.
Sample: 1,131 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 22.2, 4.0 above their average of 18.2 on all balls faced (+22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 1687 balls faced.
Sample: 1,687 balls · high confidence
England: average of 21.8, 3.6 above their average of 18.2 on all balls faced (+20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 3554 balls faced.
Sample: 3,554 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 23.4, 5.2 above their average of 18.2 on all balls faced (+29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 880 balls faced.
Sample: 880 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 21.5, 3.3 above their average of 18.2 on all balls faced (+18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 26% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 3654 balls faced.
Sample: 3,654 balls · high confidence
United Arab Emirates: average of 28.6, 10.4 above their average of 18.2 on all balls faced (+57%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 292 balls faced.
Sample: 292 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

India: average of 61.7, 34.0 above their average of 27.7 on all balls bowled (+123%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 1146 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,146 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 3.32, 0.34 above their economy of 2.98 on all balls bowled (+11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 7727 balls bowled.
Sample: 7,727 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 36.7, 9.0 above their average of 27.7 on all balls bowled (+32%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: -0%) — 2489 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,489 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 32.6, 4.9 above their average of 27.7 on all balls bowled (+18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 22% of comparable players (their median change: -10%) — 1638 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,638 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 31.2, 3.5 above their average of 27.7 on all balls bowled (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 29% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 13507 balls bowled.
Sample: 13,507 balls · high confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

United Arab Emirates: average of 22.9, 4.8 below their average of 27.7 on all balls bowled (-17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 1252 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,252 balls · high confidence
Pakistan: average of 22.5, 5.1 below their average of 27.7 on all balls bowled (-19%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 19% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 3708 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,708 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 24.0, 3.7 below their average of 27.7 on all balls bowled (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 24% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 2474 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,474 balls · high confidence
England: average of 25.7, 2.0 below their average of 27.7 on all balls bowled (-7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 27% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 19357 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	1,687	1,332	60	22.20	78.96	64.0%	12.0%
Off break	1,194	627	35	17.91	52.51	72.2%	5.9%
Right-arm fast	798	623	37	16.84	78.07	64.0%	11.3%
Slow left-arm orthodox	667	277	19	14.58	41.53	76.8%	4.5%
Left-arm fast	504	340	18	18.89	67.46	63.9%	7.9%
Left-arm fast-medium	374	254	18	14.11	67.91	67.1%	10.2%
Leg break	221	107	5	21.40	48.42	68.3%	3.6%
Right-arm medium	151	97	8	12.13	64.24	70.9%	9.9%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	22,308	10,787	409	26.37	2.90	54.5	77.0%	6.7%
Left-handed batters	11,388	5,932	195	30.42	3.13	58.4	75.1%	7.1%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	15,570	7,541	270	27.93	2.91	57.7	77.0%	6.7%
New ball (1-20)	10,399	4,905	176	27.87	2.83	59.1	77.6%	6.5%
Second new ball (81+)	7,727	4,273	158	27.04	3.32	48.9	73.4%	7.7%

Second new ball (81+)	3,241	2,114	111	19.05	65.23	68.5%	8.8%
Old ball (21-80)	2,325	1,538	86	17.88	66.15	66.8%	8.9%