Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

SM Boland, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 18, 16 below their balls per dismissal of 34 on all balls faced (-47%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 234 balls faced.
Sample: 234 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 192, 158 above their balls per dismissal of 34 on all balls faced (+470%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 192 balls faced.
Sample: 192 balls · low confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 44.3, 15.2 above their strike rate of 29.1 on all balls faced (+52%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 167 balls faced.
Sample: 167 balls · low confidence
South Africa: average of 21.0, 11.2 above their average of 9.8 on all balls faced (+114%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 180 balls faced.
Sample: 180 balls · low confidence
South Africa: average of 14.3, 4.5 above their average of 9.8 on all balls faced (+46%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 184 balls faced.
Sample: 184 balls · low confidence
Right-arm fast: strike rate of 35.3, 6.2 above their strike rate of 29.1 on all balls faced (+21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 22% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 167 balls faced.
Sample: 167 balls · low confidence
Right-arm fast: average of 11.8, 2.0 above their average of 9.8 on all balls faced (+20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 167 balls faced.
Sample: 167 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Away from home: average of 27.1, 8.6 above their average of 18.4 on all balls bowled (+47%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 865 balls bowled.
Sample: 865 balls · high confidence
England: average of 48.0, 29.6 above their average of 18.4 on all balls bowled (+160%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 498 balls bowled.
Sample: 498 balls · medium confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 60.2, 21.6 above their strike rate of 38.7 on all balls bowled (+56%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 241 balls bowled.
Sample: 241 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Australia: average of 16.2, 2.2 below their average of 18.4 on all balls bowled (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: +14%) — 2500 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,500 balls · high confidence
India: average of 16.0, 2.4 below their average of 18.4 on all balls bowled (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 928 balls bowled.
Sample: 928 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 35.1, 3.6 below their strike rate of 38.7 on all balls bowled (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1194 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,194 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 16.2, 2.2 below their average of 18.4 on all balls bowled (-12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 29% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 2500 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,500 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 2.41, 0.45 below their economy of 2.86 on all balls bowled (-16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 241 balls bowled.
Sample: 241 balls · low confidence
West Indies: average of 9.0, 9.4 below their average of 18.4 on all balls bowled (-51%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: -8%) — 247 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast	167	59	5	11.80	35.33	82.0%	5.4%
Right-arm fast-medium	167	74	8	9.25	44.31	78.4%	6.6%
Off break	125	19	2	9.50	15.20	88.8%	0.8%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	283	82	9	9.11	28.98	84.5%	4.2%
Second new ball (81+)	234	74	6	12.33	31.62	83.8%	4.3%

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	2,347	1,139	65	17.52	2.91	36.1	75.1%	5.8%
Left-handed batters	1,018	466	22	21.18	2.75	46.3	76.8%	5.7%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	1,930	955	49	19.49	2.97	39.4	75.1%	6.1%
New ball (1-20)	1,194	553	34	16.26	2.78	35.1	76.0%	5.5%
Second new ball (81+)	241	97	4	24.25	2.41	60.3	78.0%	4.1%