Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

SM Pollock, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 43, 14 below their balls per dismissal of 57 on all balls faced (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 565 balls faced.
Sample: 565 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 27.1, 7.5 below their average of 34.6 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 661 balls faced.
Sample: 661 balls · high confidence
Pace: average of 27.0, 7.6 below their average of 34.6 on all balls faced (-22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 961 balls faced.
Sample: 961 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 57.3, 3.2 below their strike rate of 60.5 on all balls faced (-5%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 990 balls faced.
Sample: 990 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): average of 31.5, 3.1 below their average of 34.6 on all balls faced (-9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 22% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 990 balls faced.
Sample: 990 balls · high confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Spin: average of 56.4, 21.8 above their average of 34.6 on all balls faced (+63%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: +8%) — 812 balls faced.
Sample: 812 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 42.8, 8.2 above their average of 34.6 on all balls faced (+24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 1094 balls faced.
Sample: 1,094 balls · high confidence
Leg break: average of 68.8, 34.2 above their average of 34.6 on all balls faced (+99%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 11% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 470 balls faced.
Sample: 470 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 64.9, 4.5 above their strike rate of 60.5 on all balls faced (+7%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 764 balls faced.
Sample: 764 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 67.7, 7.3 above their strike rate of 60.5 on all balls faced (+12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 623 balls faced.
Sample: 623 balls · high confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Left-handed batters: average of 55.4, 27.3 above their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (+97%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 2426 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,426 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 61.8, 33.7 above their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (+120%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 1078 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,078 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 88.1, 22.1 above their strike rate of 66.0 on all balls bowled (+33%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 19% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1938 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,938 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 34.2, 6.1 above their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (+22%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 3093 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,093 balls · high confidence
India: average of 55.8, 27.6 above their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (+98%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 540 balls bowled.
Sample: 540 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 58.2, 30.1 above their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (+107%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: +14%) — 528 balls bowled.
Sample: 528 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Right-handed batters: average of 21.0, 7.1 below their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 3649 balls bowled.
Sample: 3,649 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 21.3, 6.8 below their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 2778 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,778 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 21.3, 6.8 below their average of 28.1 on all balls bowled (-24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 2778 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	623	422	13	32.46	67.74	67.7%	10.3%
Leg break	470	275	4	68.75	58.51	67.7%	6.4%
Off break	182	98	3	32.67	53.85	68.1%	4.9%
Slow left-arm orthodox	160	78	1	78.00	48.75	71.3%	4.4%
Right-arm fast	148	83	6	13.83	56.08	70.9%	6.8%
Left-arm fast-medium	116	60	2	30.00	51.72	73.3%	6.9%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	990	567	18	31.50

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	3,649	1,534	73	21.01	2.52	50.0	81.0%	5.8%
Left-handed batters	2,426	1,052	19	55.37	2.60	127.7	80.6%	5.7%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	2,648	1,167	40	29.18	2.64	66.2	79.7%	6.0%
New ball (1-20)	1,938	744	22	33.82	2.30	88.1	83.5%	5.1%
Second new ball (81+)	1,489	675	30	22.50	2.72	49.6	79.4%	6.2%