Plans built only from the evidence.

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 112.7, 34.1 above their strike rate of 78.6 on all balls bowled (+43%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 7% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1014 balls bowled.

Sample: 1,014 balls · high confidence

Away from home: average of 60.3, 19.8 above their average of 40.5 on all balls bowled (+49%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 912 balls bowled.

Sample: 912 balls · high confidence

Bangladesh: average of 114.3, 73.8 above their average of 40.5 on all balls bowled (+182%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 1% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 471 balls bowled.

Sample: 471 balls · medium confidence

Bangladesh: average of 114.3, 73.8 above their average of 40.5 on all balls bowled (+182%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 3% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 471 balls bowled.

Sample: 471 balls · medium confidence

Left-handed batters: average of 58.8, 18.2 above their average of 40.5 on all balls bowled (+45%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 453 balls bowled.

Sample: 453 balls · medium confidence

New ball (1-20): strike rate of 288.0, 209.4 above their strike rate of 78.6 on all balls bowled (+267%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 288 balls bowled.

Sample: 288 balls · low confidence

Second new ball (81+): economy of 3.52, 0.42 above their economy of 3.09 on all balls bowled (+14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 348 balls bowled.

Sample: 348 balls · low confidence

At home: average of 25.7, 14.9 below their average of 40.5 on all balls bowled (-37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 738 balls bowled.

Sample: 738 balls · high confidence

New Zealand: average of 24.3, 16.2 below their average of 40.5 on all balls bowled (-40%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1089 balls bowled.

Sample: 1,089 balls · high confidence

West Indies: average of 25.7, 14.9 below their average of 40.5 on all balls bowled (-37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: -10%) — 738 balls bowled.

Sample: 738 balls · high confidence

Right-handed batters: average of 36.2, 4.3 below their average of 40.5 on all balls bowled (-11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 1197 balls bowled.

Sample: 1,197 balls · high confidence

Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 31.6, 46.9 below their strike rate of 78.6 on all balls bowled (-60%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 348 balls bowled.

Sample: 348 balls · low confidence

New Zealand: average of 21.7, 18.9 below their average of 40.5 on all balls bowled (-47%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: +7%) — 351 balls bowled.

Sample: 351 balls · low confidence

New ball (1-20): economy of 2.60, 0.49 below their economy of 3.09 on all balls bowled (-16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 288 balls bowled.

Sample: 288 balls · low confidence