Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

SPD Smith, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Right-arm medium: average of 38.1, 17.2 below their average of 55.3 on all balls faced (-31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 6% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 660 balls faced.
Sample: 660 balls · high confidence
Bangladesh: average of 39.4, 15.9 below their average of 55.3 on all balls faced (-29%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: +22%) — 489 balls faced.
Sample: 489 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 35.3, 20.0 below their average of 55.3 on all balls faced (-36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 9% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 973 balls faced.
Sample: 973 balls · high confidence
New at the crease (first 15 balls): balls per dismissal of 79, 24 below their balls per dismissal of 103 on all balls faced (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 12% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 3087 balls faced.
Sample: 3,087 balls · high confidence
South Africa: average of 40.6, 14.7 below their average of 55.3 on all balls faced (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 13% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 1958 balls faced.
Sample: 1,958 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast: average of 41.5, 13.8 below their average of 55.3 on all balls faced (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 2701 balls faced.
Sample: 2,701 balls · high confidence
Left-arm fast-medium: average of 44.2, 11.1 below their average of 55.3 on all balls faced (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 21% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 1032 balls faced.
Sample: 1,032 balls · high confidence
Leg break: average of 50.7, 4.6 below their average of 55.3 on all balls faced (-8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 918 balls faced.
Sample: 918 balls · high confidence
Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 51.4, 2.4 below their strike rate of 53.8 on all balls faced (-4%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 13201 balls faced.
Sample: 13,201 balls · high confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: average of 49.5, 5.7 below their average of 55.3 on all balls faced (-10%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 28% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 3175 balls faced.
Sample: 3,175 balls · high confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

West Indies: average of 90.8, 35.5 above their average of 55.3 on all balls faced (+64%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 1605 balls faced.
Sample: 1,605 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 60.8, 6.9 above their strike rate of 53.8 on all balls faced (+13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 4257 balls faced.
Sample: 4,257 balls · high confidence
Off break: average of 75.1, 19.8 above their average of 55.3 on all balls faced (+36%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 3456 balls faced.
Sample: 3,456 balls · high confidence
Off break: strike rate of 58.7, 4.8 above their strike rate of 53.8 on all balls faced (+9%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 23% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 3456 balls faced.
Sample: 3,456 balls · high confidence
West Indies: average of 68.3, 13.0 above their average of 55.3 on all balls faced (+24%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 742 balls faced.
Sample: 742 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 61.8, 6.5 above their average of 55.3 on all balls faced (+12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 25% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 7916 balls faced.
Sample: 7,916 balls · high confidence
Sri Lanka: average of 67.0, 11.7 above their average of 55.3 on all balls faced (+21%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 1270 balls faced.
Sample: 1,270 balls · high confidence
Left-arm wrist spin: average of 119.0, 63.7 above their average of 55.3 on all balls faced (+115%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 8% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 192 balls faced.
Sample: 192 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 132.7, 55.3 above their strike rate of 77.4 on all balls bowled (+72%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 929 balls bowled.
Sample: 929 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 105.2, 52.2 above their average of 53.1 on all balls bowled (+98%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 4% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 582 balls bowled.
Sample: 582 balls · medium confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

Away from home: average of 39.1, 13.9 below their average of 53.1 on all balls bowled (-26%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 888 balls bowled.
Sample: 888 balls · high confidence
England: average of 27.5, 25.6 below their average of 53.1 on all balls bowled (-48%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 426 balls bowled.
Sample: 426 balls · medium confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 45.4, 32.0 below their strike rate of 77.4 on all balls bowled (-41%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 7% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 499 balls bowled.
Sample: 499 balls · medium confidence
Left-handed batters: economy of 3.59, 0.53 below their economy of 4.11 on all balls bowled (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 306 balls bowled.
Sample: 306 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	7,916	4,201	68	61.78	53.07	72.8%	6.8%
Off break	3,456	2,027	27	75.07	58.65	62.4%	4.9%
Slow left-arm orthodox	3,175	1,536	31	49.55	48.38	72.5%	5.2%
Right-arm fast	2,701	1,493	36	41.47	55.28	70.8%	7.4%
Left-arm fast-medium	1,032	530	12	44.17	51.36	74.9%	6.5%
Leg break	918	558	11	50.73	60.78	66.1%	6.4%
Right-arm medium	660	343	9	38.11	51.97	73.5%	6.8%
Left-arm fast	277	163	3	54.33	58.84	68.2%	7.6%
Left-arm wrist spin	192	119

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	1,164	825	15	55.00	4.25	77.6	59.8%	7.6%
Left-handed batters	306	183	4	45.75	3.59	76.5	66.3%	6.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	929	641	7	91.57	4.14	132.7	60.0%	7.1%
Second new ball (81+)	499	347	11	31.55	4.17	45.4	62.5%	8.0%

Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	13,201	6,790	120	56.58	51.44	71.4%	5.8%
Second new ball (81+)	4,257	2,587	46	56.24	60.77	66.5%	7.0%
New ball (1-20)	2,981	1,626	33	49.27	54.55	71.7%	7.1%