Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

SR Harmer, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Away from home: average of 15.0, 5.6 below their average of 20.6 on all balls faced (-27%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 469 balls faced.
Sample: 469 balls · high confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: average of 14.8, 5.7 below their average of 20.6 on all balls faced (-28%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 227 balls faced.
Sample: 227 balls · medium confidence
Settling in (balls 16-40): balls per dismissal of 44, 8 below their balls per dismissal of 52 on all balls faced (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 27% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 309 balls faced.
Sample: 309 balls · medium confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

South Africa: average of 28.2, 7.7 above their average of 20.6 on all balls faced (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 10% of comparable players (their median change: -12%) — 514 balls faced.
Sample: 514 balls · high confidence
At home: average of 28.2, 7.7 above their average of 20.6 on all balls faced (+37%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 12% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 514 balls faced.
Sample: 514 balls · high confidence
Australia: average of 41.2, 20.7 above their average of 20.6 on all balls faced (+100%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 410 balls faced.
Sample: 410 balls · medium confidence
Off break: average of 34.0, 13.4 above their average of 20.6 on all balls faced (+65%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 267 balls faced.
Sample: 267 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 47.0, 26.4 above their average of 20.6 on all balls faced (+128%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 165 balls faced.
Sample: 165 balls · low confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: strike rate of 46.3, 6.6 above their strike rate of 39.8 on all balls faced (+16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 18% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 218 balls faced.
Sample: 218 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they leak

Australia: average of 37.1, 14.1 above their average of 23.1 on all balls bowled (+61%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: +12%) — 1122 balls bowled.
Sample: 1,122 balls · high confidence
Right-handed batters: average of 25.9, 2.8 above their average of 23.1 on all balls bowled (+12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 18% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 2114 balls bowled.
Sample: 2,114 balls · high confidence
Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 92.3, 43.3 above their strike rate of 49.0 on all balls bowled (+88%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: -11%) — 554 balls bowled.
Sample: 554 balls · medium confidence
Second new ball (81+): economy of 3.13, 0.31 above their economy of 2.82 on all balls bowled (+11%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: +3%) — 554 balls bowled.
Sample: 554 balls · medium confidence
Bangladesh: average of 60.3, 37.3 above their average of 23.1 on all balls bowled (+161%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 5% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 348 balls bowled.
Sample: 348 balls · low confidence

Batting against them: where they are strongest

India: average of 15.0, 8.0 below their average of 23.1 on all balls bowled (-35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 2% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 976 balls bowled.
Sample: 976 balls · high confidence
India: average of 15.0, 8.0 below their average of 23.1 on all balls bowled (-35%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 4% of comparable players (their median change: +11%) — 976 balls bowled.
Sample: 976 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): economy of 2.41, 0.42 below their economy of 2.82 on all balls bowled (-15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 885 balls bowled.
Sample: 885 balls · high confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 42.1, 6.9 below their strike rate of 49.0 on all balls bowled (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 15% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 885 balls bowled.

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Off break	267	102	3	34.00	38.20	73.4%	3.0%
Right-arm fast-medium	227	89	6	14.83	39.21	80.2%	5.3%
Slow left-arm orthodox	218	101	3	33.67	46.33	75.2%	4.6%
Right-arm fast	99	39	3	13.00	39.39	75.8%	4.0%
Right-arm medium	73	33	1	33.00	45.21	78.1%	5.5%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Second new ball (81+)	517	200	10	20.00	38.68	77.4%	4.3%
Old ball (21-80)	466	191	9	21.22

Their bowling by batter hand and phase

Batter
Batter	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-handed batters	2,114	1,036	40	25.90	2.94	52.9	74.0%	5.9%
Left-handed batters	1,956	879	43	20.44	2.70	45.5	74.1%	4.7%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Wkts	Avg	Econ	Balls/wkt	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	2,631	1,271	56	22.70	2.90	47.0	73.2%	5.4%
New ball (1-20)	885	355	21	16.90	2.41	42.1	77.4%	4.4%
Second new ball (81+)	554	289	6	48.17	3.13	92.3	72.4%	6.0%