Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

SV Carlisle, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

Zimbabwe: average of 10.2, 13.2 below their average of 23.4 on all balls faced (-56%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: +21%) — 187 balls faced.
Sample: 187 balls · low confidence
At home: average of 10.2, 13.2 below their average of 23.4 on all balls faced (-56%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 187 balls faced.
Sample: 187 balls · low confidence
New ball (1-20): strike rate of 33.6, 5.4 below their strike rate of 39.0 on all balls faced (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 211 balls faced.
Sample: 211 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Away from home: average of 40.0, 16.6 above their average of 23.4 on all balls faced (+71%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 354 balls faced.
Sample: 354 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 40.0, 16.6 above their average of 23.4 on all balls faced (+71%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 3% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 354 balls faced.
Sample: 354 balls · medium confidence
Pace: average of 30.6, 7.2 above their average of 23.4 on all balls faced (+31%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 5% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 412 balls faced.
Sample: 412 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 40.0, 16.6 above their average of 23.4 on all balls faced (+71%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 354 balls faced.
Sample: 354 balls · medium confidence
Once set (40+ balls): balls per dismissal of 94, 34 above their balls per dismissal of 60 on all balls faced (+56%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 9% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 281 balls faced.
Sample: 281 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast: average of 26.3, 2.9 above their average of 23.4 on all balls faced (+12%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: -6%) — 194 balls faced.
Sample: 194 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast	194	79	3	26.33	40.72	80.4%	6.2%
Right-arm fast-medium	119	46	2	23.00	38.66	77.3%	5.0%
Right-arm medium	76	22	0	–	28.95	84.2%	2.6%
Left-arm wrist spin	67	42	1	42.00	62.69	73.1%	9.0%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	311	122	5	24.40	39.23	79.7%	5.8%
New ball (1-20)	211	71	3	23.67	33.65	81.0%	4.3%