Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

T Kaitano, Men's Test

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 25.3, 3.8 below their strike rate of 29.1 on all balls faced (-13%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 14% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 253 balls faced.
Sample: 253 balls · medium confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: strike rate of 21.7, 7.4 below their strike rate of 29.1 on all balls faced (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 22% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 161 balls faced.
Sample: 161 balls · low confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: average of 17.5, 5.8 below their average of 23.2 on all balls faced (-25%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 24% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 161 balls faced.
Sample: 161 balls · low confidence
Off break: strike rate of 24.3, 4.8 below their strike rate of 29.1 on all balls faced (-16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 29% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 152 balls faced.
Sample: 152 balls · low confidence

New ball (1-20): strike rate of 34.3, 5.2 above their strike rate of 29.1 on all balls faced (+18%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 6% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 315 balls faced.
Sample: 315 balls · medium confidence
Bangladesh: average of 47.0, 23.8 above their average of 23.2 on all balls faced (+102%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 14% of comparable players (their median change: +22%) — 413 balls faced.
Sample: 413 balls · medium confidence
New ball (1-20): average of 27.0, 3.8 above their average of 23.2 on all balls faced (+16%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 16% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 315 balls faced.
Sample: 315 balls · medium confidence
Right-arm fast-medium: strike rate of 42.9, 13.8 above their strike rate of 29.1 on all balls faced (+48%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -2%) — 170 balls faced.
Sample: 170 balls · low confidence
Off break: average of 37.0, 13.8 above their average of 23.2 on all balls faced (+59%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 29% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 152 balls faced.
Sample: 152 balls · low confidence

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Right-arm fast-medium	170	73	3	24.33	42.94	81.8%	5.3%
Slow left-arm orthodox	161	35	2	17.50	21.74	85.1%	1.2%
Off break	152	37	1	37.00	24.34	84.9%	2.6%
Right-arm medium	79	27	2	13.50	34.18	82.3%	5.1%
Right-arm fast	65	12	0	–	18.46	90.8%	3.1%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
New ball (1-20)	315	108	4	27.00	34.29	82.9%	4.1%
Old ball (21-80)	253	64	3	21.33