Strategy

Plans built only from the evidence.

Every line below is a measured split or record from the data, with the sample behind it. Nothing here is a prediction.

TM Dowlin, Men's Test

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Bowling to them: where to attack

At home: average of 28.6, 2.6 below their average of 31.2 on all balls faced (-8%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 25% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 435 balls faced.
Sample: 435 balls · medium confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: strike rate of 35.4, 10.8 below their strike rate of 46.2 on all balls faced (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 20% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 212 balls faced.
Sample: 212 balls · low confidence
Slow left-arm orthodox: average of 25.0, 6.2 below their average of 31.2 on all balls faced (-20%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 26% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 212 balls faced.
Sample: 212 balls · low confidence

Bowling to them: what to avoid

Old ball (21-80): average of 35.7, 4.5 above their average of 31.2 on all balls faced (+14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 27% of comparable players (their median change: +1%) — 452 balls faced.
Sample: 452 balls · high confidence
Away from home: average of 35.8, 4.6 above their average of 31.2 on all balls faced (+15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 17% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 307 balls faced.
Sample: 307 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 35.8, 4.6 above their average of 31.2 on all balls faced (+15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 307 balls faced.
Sample: 307 balls · medium confidence
Australia: average of 35.8, 4.6 above their average of 31.2 on all balls faced (+15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 28% of comparable players (their median change: -5%) — 307 balls faced.
Sample: 307 balls · medium confidence
Off break: strike rate of 61.3, 15.1 above their strike rate of 46.2 on all balls faced (+33%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 13% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 163 balls faced.
Sample: 163 balls · low confidence
Off break: average of 50.0, 18.8 above their average of 31.2 on all balls faced (+60%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 27% of comparable players (their median change: +5%) — 163 balls faced.
Sample: 163 balls · low confidence

Their batting against each bowling type and phase

Bowling type
Bowling type	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Slow left-arm orthodox	212	75	3	25.00	35.38	79.2%	3.8%
Off break	163	100	2	50.00	61.35	65.6%	6.7%
Right-arm fast-medium	138	42	1	42.00	30.43	79.0%	2.2%
Left-arm fast	85	57	1	57.00	67.06	74.1%	10.6%
Right-arm fast	80	42	3	14.00	52.50	70.0%	6.3%
Left-arm fast-medium	64	27	1	27.00	42.19	82.8%	9.4%

Phase
Phase	Balls	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR	Dot %	4s+6s %
Old ball (21-80)	452	214	6	35.67