Plans built only from the evidence.

Old ball (21-80): strike rate of 40.1, 6.3 below their strike rate of 46.4 on all balls faced (-14%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 8% of comparable players (their median change: -1%) — 538 balls faced.

Sample: 538 balls · high confidence

At home: average of 18.6, 11.2 below their average of 29.8 on all balls faced (-38%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 2% of comparable players (their median change: +6%) — 435 balls faced.

Sample: 435 balls · medium confidence

England: average of 18.6, 11.2 below their average of 29.8 on all balls faced (-38%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 10% of comparable players (their median change: -3%) — 435 balls faced.

Sample: 435 balls · medium confidence

South Africa: average of 16.2, 13.6 below their average of 29.8 on all balls faced (-46%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 11% of comparable players (their median change: -9%) — 268 balls faced.

Sample: 268 balls · medium confidence

Slow left-arm orthodox: strike rate of 35.8, 10.7 below their strike rate of 46.4 on all balls faced (-23%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the bottom 15% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 288 balls faced.

Sample: 288 balls · medium confidence

Away from home: average of 46.7, 16.9 above their average of 29.8 on all balls faced (+57%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 1% of comparable players (their median change: -4%) — 528 balls faced.

Sample: 528 balls · high confidence

Second new ball (81+): strike rate of 54.4, 7.9 above their strike rate of 46.4 on all balls faced (+17%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 20% of comparable players (their median change: +4%) — 425 balls faced.

Sample: 425 balls · medium confidence

Right-arm fast: strike rate of 53.2, 6.8 above their strike rate of 46.4 on all balls faced (+15%) — allowing for sample size, that change is in the top 30% of comparable players (their median change: +2%) — 186 balls faced.

Sample: 186 balls · low confidence